The stall in fertility decline in rural, northeast, South Africa: the contribution of a self-settled, Mozambican, refugee sub-population

  • Latifat Ibisomi University of Witwatersrand
  • Jill Williams University of Witwatersrand
  • Mark A Collinson University of Witwatersrand
  • Stephen Tollman University of Witwatersrand
Keywords: Fertility Stall, South Africa, Mozambican Refugee

Abstract

Using longitudinal data from the Agincourt Health and socio-Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS) in rural South Africa, this paper examines the role of the fertility of self-settled, former Mozambican refugee sub-population on the stall in fertility decline in the Agincourt HDSS from 1993 to 2009. The Agincourt HDSS fertility trend is decomposed to quantify the relative contribution of the Mozambicans to fertility changes. Results show that fertility level declined by about 1.5 children per woman over the period and the level remain around 2.5 children per woman in the last eight years of the period examined suggesting a stall in fertility decline in the sub-district population covered by the HDSS. However, while the fertility of the Mozambicans fell consistently over the period, there was a reversal in the fertility decline of South African women residing in the area suggesting that the overall stalls are attributable to stalls in fertility decline among South African women. 

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Author Biographies

Latifat Ibisomi, University of Witwatersrand
Demography and Population Studies, Faculty of HumanitiesMRC/Wits Rural Public Health and Health Transitions Research Unit, School of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences
Jill Williams, University of Witwatersrand
MRC/Wits Rural Public Health and Health Transitions Research Unit, School of Public Health, Faculty of Health SciencesInstitute of Behavioral Science, University of Colorado Boulder, USA 
Mark A Collinson, University of Witwatersrand
MRC/Wits Rural Public Health and Health Transitions Research Unit, School of Public Health, Faculty of Health SciencesUmeå Centre for Global Health Research, Umeå University, Sweden 
Stephen Tollman, University of Witwatersrand
MRC/Wits Rural Public Health and Health Transitions Research Unit, School of Public Health, Faculty of Health SciencesUmeå Centre for Global Health Research, Umeå University, Sweden INDEPTH Network, Ghana 
Published
2014-06-03