Probabilistic population forecasts for Egypt

Huda Ragaa Mohamed Alkitkat


Abstract Considering the importance of population forecast, as a basic tool for a wide range of decision makers and planners, this paper produces probabilistic population forecasts for Egypt during the period starting from 2006 to 2051. It dependsmainly on experts' knowledge and arguments which can help to illustrate the uncertainties associated with future demographic trends. The results show that the total population of Egypt is likely to increase significantly over the coming 20 years, from about 73 million to over 100 million (97.12 and 103.5 million), with 95 percent uncertainty range).

Keywords: Fertility; mortality; probabilistic; forecasts; Egypt

Résumé Etant donnée l'importance de la prévision démographique, comme outil de base pour un large éventail de décideurs et de planificateurs, ce document présente des projections probabilistes de la population égyptienne de 2006 à 2051. Cellesci se basent principalement sur les connaissances des experts et leurs arguments qui permettent d’illustrer les incertitudes liées aux évolutions démographiques futures. Les résultats montrent que la population totale de l'Egypte est susceptible d'augmenter de manière significative au cours des 20 prochaines années d'environ 73 millions à plus de 100 millions, la marge d’incertitude au seuil de 95% allant de 97,12 à 103,5 millions.

Mots clés: fertilité, mortalité, probabiliste , previsions , L'Egypte


Fertility; mortality; probabilistic; forecasts; Egypt

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