Can Nigeria attain a demographic dividend?

Scott R Moreland


We used a demographic-economic simulation model to explore the possibility of Nigeria obtaining a demographic dividend. The model, called, “DemDiv”, has been applied in several other sub-Saharan African countries. Four scenarios were constructed and their results compared in terms of the level of GDP and GDP per capita in the final year of the simulation. GDP in the final year (2050) is 4% higher and GDP per capita is 29% higher under a scenario in which a successful family planning program is implemented in conjunction with education and economic strategies compared to a scenario with only increases education and economic inputs. The modelling results suggest that Nigeria can enter the ranks of lower middle income economies and obtain a demographic dividend if it adopts appropriate family planning, education and economic strategies.


demographic dividend, population growth, model, Nigeria, family planning

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ISSN 2308-7854 (online); ISSN 0850-5780 (print)

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