Modelling regional differentials in childhood and adult mortality in Nigeria

Bridget Ogochukwu Afam, Tubosun Alex Olowolafe, Babatunde Makinde Gbadebo, Ayo Stephen Adebowale


Context: Nigeria is one of the countries yet to undergo demographic transition in sub-Saharan Africa. This study provided estimates of childhood and Adult mortality across geopolitical zones in Nigeria.

 Data Source and Method: The parameters used in this study were estimated from 2013 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey. Child and adult mortality were estimated using Brass logit system and siblings survival method respectively and then linked using the logit life tables. Heligman pollard model was used to generate estimates of probability of death.

Findings: There were regional variations in the levels of infant and under-five mortality in Nigeria, mortality was highest in the North West and least in South West. Survivorship probabilities decreased as age increased. The age patterns of childhood and adult mortality were similar across all regions. Life expectancy from birth in Nigeria was 58 years.

Conclusion: The estimated mortality rates were high and varied across the regions in Nigeria. While government should not relent its efforts in childhood mortality reduction in Nigeria, more attention should be focused on children who live in the Northern part of Nigeria


Childhood mortality, Survivorship probability, Nigeria.

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ISSN 2308-7854 (online); ISSN 0850-5780 (print)

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